Fall weather has finally settled in California, with morning temperatures dipping into the high 40s, though daytime highs still reach up to 80 degrees. The cooler nights are signaling change, and trees are beginning to shed their leaves. Growers are planning a final round of irrigation before winter dormancy sets in.
The warm autumn weather has accelerated the almond harvest, with nuts barely touching the ground before they are picked up. Huller/sheller facilities are moving quickly and expect to finish processing by the end of November, currently over halfway through.
As of now, crop receipts have surged to 1.035 billion pounds—a 65.5% increase compared to last year’s 626 million pounds at this time. However, this rapid intake has made it challenging to precisely gauge the final yield against the 2.8 billion-pound objective estimate. Many still believe the total yield may fall short of the estimate. The market remains firm as growers hold back on large sales commitments, yet new crop sales were strong in September, with 273 million pounds sold, setting up for robust fourth-quarter shipments.
Domestic shipments were down 11% in September, with 56 million pounds shipped compared to last year’s 65 million pounds. This decline might be due to a low carry-out and limited availability of popular varieties for the domestic market. Export shipments, however, were up 1.8%, reaching 157.7 million pounds, driven largely by NP Inshell exports to the Middle East, India, and Vietnam.
Domestic commitments trail last year by 19%, with 211 million pounds committed versus 260 million pounds previously. This may reflect both limited selling by growers and cautious purchasing by buyers. Meanwhile, export commitments are up 10% at 457 million pounds compared to last year’s 412 million. Both markets remain largely uncovered beyond December, so stronger sales are expected in the coming months as the crop becomes fully available, bringing all parties back to the table.
