Overview of U.S. Pistachio Shipments
Year-to-date pistachio shipments are down nearly 12% compared to the previous year. However, this decline is not due to weak demand but rather limited supply. A lighter crop this year has led to widespread buyer allocations, prompting larger purchasers to seek additional inventory from secondary and tertiary sources.
The market has strengthened as buyers scramble to secure supplies in a tight crop year. Minimal carry-in from 2023 has compounded pressure on fourth-quarter shipments, especially for Chinese New Year and holiday demands. As of October 31, the 2024 U.S. pistachio crop was estimated at 1.11 billion pounds. Final crop receipts are projected to total 1.12 billion pounds.
Crop Quality and Market Trends
The overall quality of the 2024 U.S. pistachio crop has been excellent, with low levels of stain and insect damage. However, the industry has noted a higher percentage of closed shells compared to previous years, resulting in one of the lowest volumes of shelling stock in recent history. Sizing has aligned with expectations, with more nuts measuring size 22 and larger due to increased production from Golden Hills and Lost Hills varieties.
While in-shell pistachio prices have stabilized, the market for pistachio kernels continues to rise. Daily inquiries for kernels from diverse markets highlight strong global demand. Kernel prices are expected to remain firm, with potential increases driven by limited shelling stock availability. There are even rumors of clean, open in-shell pistachios being shelled to meet kernel demand, which could further constrain the supply of clean open in-shell nuts.
Iranian Pistachio Market Dynamics
Export Trends
Iran’s pistachio export dynamics reveal a notable shift in market preferences over the past five crop years. The Far East, which saw a sharp decline in its share of Iranian pistachio exports from 2020 to 2023, is now rebounding, accounting for 42% of total monthly exports. Meanwhile, the Indian Subcontinent continues its upward trajectory, increasing its share from 14% in 2020 to 25% in the current crop year. This reflects growing demand for Iranian pistachios in these variety-oriented markets.
The demand for Iranian Green Peeled Pistachio Kernels (GPPK) remains robust. Shipments of GPPK and related raw materials to non-European destinations grew significantly last crop year, with nearly 40% of GPPK shipments in the first month of the 2024/25 marketing year destined for non-EU markets.
Crop Estimates and Shipments
The Iran Pistachio Association (IPA) pre-harvest forecast estimated the 2024 crop yield at approximately 190,000 metric tons of dried in-shell pistachios. The IPA’s post-harvest figures will be released in late November.
Initial shipments for the 2024/25 marketing year reached 21,000 metric tons (in-shell equivalent), a 50% increase from the prior year and 31% above the four-year average. This surge reflects the competitiveness of Iranian pistachios in the global market, driven by:
Conclusion
The December 2024 pistachio market reflects strong demand and tightening supplies across major producing regions. The U.S. faces challenges from a lighter crop and minimal carryover, while Iranian pistachios are capitalizing on competitive pricing and strategic market positioning. Both markets are experiencing firm pricing trends, with expectations for further increases in the coming months. Industry stakeholders should monitor supply dynamics closely as we move into 2025.
